Effects of climate change on the distribution of Pinus chihuahuana and Pinus leiophylla: a proposal for the conservation of both species in Mexico
Effects of climate change on the distribution of Pinus chihuahuana and Pinus leiophylla: a proposal for the conservation of both species in Mexico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32870/e-cucba.vi21.322Keywords:
Areas of suitability, climate scenarios, distribution models, environmental analysis, potential distributionAbstract
The use of distribution models is a tool used to solve biological and environmental problems. Geographic data and environmental variables were analyzed to test the hypothesis that the distribution of Pinus chihuahuana and Pinus leiophylla will be maintained by 2050 and 2080 in Mexico. Records of both species and environmental variables for the period 1910-2009 and Global Circulation Models (GFDL-CM3 and CNRM-CM5) were used under two RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios projected to 2050 and 2080. The MaxEnt algorithm was used. The results were evaluated and validated using AUC, partial Roc and Z-statistic tests. The contribution of each variable in the models was determined using the Jackknife test. The models estimated a current potential distribution area for P. chihuahuana of 81,614.8 km² and 15,105.3 km² for P. leiophylla. The relevant variables in the current period for P. chihuahuana were Bio1, Bio6, Bio13 and Bio19, while in P. leiophylla they were Bio1, Veget and Edaf. However, for the future period they were Bio1, Bio19 and Bio13 for P. chihuahuana, and Bio1, Bio14 and Bio4 for P. leiophylla. The CNRM-CM5 and GFDL-CM3 GCM projections estimated a reduction in the ranges of both species from 2080 onwards. Conservation areas of 79,078.12 km² for P. chihuahuana and 10,517.8 km² for P. leiophylla were estimated at the end of the century. Areas suitable for the conservation of P. chihuahuana (Chihuahua and Durango) and P. leiophylla (Michoacán) in Mexico were identified and proposed.
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