Fitting probability distribution functions to the maximum daily precipitation of the El Salto Durango basin
Fitting probability distribution functions to the maximum daily precipitation of the El Salto Durango basin
Keywords:
Design rain, FDP Gumbel, models, return period, IDF curvesAbstract
The spatiotemporal characterization of precipitation is important for productive activities and infrastructure in a basin; however, extreme events represent a social risk; probabilistic models are key to planning mitigation actions in advance. The objective was to adjust probability distribution functions (FDPs) to determine the maximum probable precipitation (PMP) associated with different return periods, using precipitation records from the period from 1963 to 2023. Gumbel turned out to be the most effective FDP. The design rainsheet ranged from 70 (T: 2 years) to 285 (T: 10, 000 years) mm. Return intensity–duration–period (IDF) curves developed with the Modified Bell method for a duration of 120 minutes indicate that the highest intensities occur in the first 15 minutes. Precipitation hyetograms reveal an asymmetrical temporal distribution with a maximum peak around 40 minutes. The PMP by the Hershfield method (144.2 mm) was close to the probabilistic method (159 mm, T: 60 years). The estimation of design precipitation is important for use in rainfall-runoff models for non-gauged hydrological basins in this region.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Sacramento Corral Rivas, Erik Orlando Luna Robles, José Encarnación Lujan Soto, Silvia Janeth Bejar Pulido
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