From biological yield to operating margin: maize production performance in the State of Jalisco over two decades

Abstract

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a fundamental stone of Mexico’s food system, as well as its socioeconomic and cultural behavior; however, its market is heavily dependent on imports and highly vulnerable to fluctuations in international prices and production input costs. This study examines trends in maize production and demand in Mexico from 2004 to 2024, focusing particularly on how variations in biological yield translate into operating margins when viewed through the lens of price dynamics (domestic, international, and input costs). The findings reveal that domestic supply responds inelastically to price changes, with yields heavily influenced by biophysical factors—such as temperature and precipitation—and input costs. Furthermore, the transmission of international prices and import trends directly impacts producer margins and domestic consumption. The study outlines the historical evolution of the land area dedicated to this crop during the period in question and the sociopolitical context that has shaped its current status in the state. It concludes that achieving food self-sufficiency requires a comprehensive synergy involving improved biological yields, targeted subsidies for inputs and the groups most in need, and public policies that ensure sustainability.