Potential distribution and climatic niche stability of Dasylirion cedrosanum Trel. under climate change scenarios in northern Mexico
Potential distribution and climatic niche stability of Dasylirion cedrosanum Trel. under climate change scenarios in northern Mexico
Keywords:
Potential distribution, xorophytic species, MaxEnt, sotol, arid zonesAbstract
The sotol is a characteristic species of the arid ecosystems of northern Mexico, with ecological and economic relevance due to its use in the production of distilled beverages and its adaptation to environments with high thermal variability. This study aimed to model the current and future potential distribution of the species under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios for the period 2041-2060. The MaxEnt algorithm was used, calibrated with the kuenm package in R, based on 107 occurrence records and bioclimatic variables from WorldClim v2.1. The optimal model showed an omission rate of 4 %, an AICc of 4 494.07, and a significant partial ROC (p < 0.05). The results indicate a high spatial stability of the climatic niche of D. cedrosanum, with 54 % of non-vulnerable suitable areas and less than 3 % of potential habitat loss under both scenarios. It is concluded that the species exhibits high climatic stability and will likely retain a large proportion of its potential distribution within the Chihuahuan Desert, preserving its ecological role and productive potential in the arid ecosystems of northern Mexico.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Luis Miguel Toribio-Ferrer, Oscar Alberto Aguirre-Calderón, Marco Aurelio González-Tagle, Javier Jiménez-Pérez, Ana Lucia Morán-Martínez, Eulalia Edith Villavicencio-Gutiérrez, Emmanuel Toribio-Ferrer, Eduardo Alanís-Rodríguez
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